the 1st Probabilistic Method in Seismic Hazard Analysis

[Sumatra]

This is a classic article published in 1968 that proposed a foundation of probabilistic method in seismic hazard analysis. Many scientists are agreed this paper is pioneered in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method.

Cornell, CA (1968). Engineering Seismic Risk Analysis, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. Vol. 58, No. 5, pp. 1583-1606.

This paper introduces a method for the evaluation of the seismic risk at the site of an engineering project. The results are in terms of a ground motion parameter (such as peak acceleration) versus average return period. The method incorporates the influence of all potential sources of earthquakes and the average activity rates assigned to them. Arbitrary geographical relationships between the site and potential point, line, or areal sources can be modeled with computational ease.

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