The strength of levees can be affected during fluctuations in the water table. It is also possible for the climate to have an influence on the position of the water table in an earth levee. Traditional methods have resulted in approximate methods for dealing with the transient fluctuations of the water table in a levee. These approximations are generally accepted in engineering practice but the question can be rightfully raised as to how these approximations compare to a rigorous transient combined seepage and slope stability analysis. Software technology has significantly changed in recent years and is now at the point where it is much easier to perform transient seepage analyses. There are new questions that can be asked. Does an effective stress analysis diverge significantly from the 3-stage Duncan (1990) analysis? If so, under what conditions?

This paper compares the Duncan (1990) three-stage methodology for analyzing rapid drawdown scenarios to a combined transient seepage and slope stability analysis. Traditional limit equilibrium methods will be utilized in the slope stability analysis and the accommodation of saturated and unsaturated pore-water pressures will be considered. Analyses of a number of typical cross-sections will be considered in order to determine the potential influence of geometry. The intent of the paper is to illustrate scenarios under which the Duncan (loc. cit.) methodology produces similar results to the results of a more rigorous analysis.