Civil Engineering Association

Probabilistic evaluation of performance point in structures and investigation of the uncertainties

The main goal of the performance based design of structures is to rationally predict the structures’
performance during earthquakes which may occur during the lifetime of the structure. In this sort of
design, a specific displacement is defined as target displacement and the structure is subjected to a
force in order to reach this target displacement. This design process includes uncertainties in loading,
materials and analysis methods of the performance point. Therefore, statistical and probabilistic
analysis should be considered. In this paper, uncertainty sources for determining the performance
point are defined and then the procedures suggested in the codes are introduced. In the next step, an
appropriate probability distribution function is defined for uncertainty parameters and finally the
performance point of the structure is determined regarding these parameters in accordance with the
codes. In addition, the sensitivity of the performance point with respect to the mentioned parameters is
investigated. Results indicate that sensitivity of the performance point to geometric characteristics is of
great importance and other parameters such as dead and live load stand in the second level in terms of
sensitivity. An appropriate lateral loading pattern with the least uncertainty is also proposed for
buildings.

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