Civil Engineering Association

Deterministic vs Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment: an Exaggerated and Obstructive Dichotomy

DETERMINISTIC VS. PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT: AN EXAGGERATED AND OBSTRUCTIVE DICHOTOMY

About the author:

This very useful article is written by Professor Julian J. Bommer from Imperial College, UK. Authored and co-authored more than 100 publications in scientific journals, international conferences, book chapters and technical reports. He is a member of Editorial Boards of Engineering Geology and Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering; and formerly a member of Editorial Board of Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. He is a member of Project Team PT1 for drafting and update of Part 1 of Eurocode 8 on seismic actions for design.

Abstract:

Deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard assessment are frequently represented as irreconcilably dierent approaches to the problem of calculating earthquake ground motions for design, each method fervently defended by its proponents. This situation often gives the impression that the selection of either a deterministic or a probabilistic approach is the most fundamental choice in performing a seismic hazard assessment. The dichotomy between the two approaches is not as pronounced as often implied and there are many examples of hazard assessments combining elements of both methods. Insistence on the fundamental division between the deterministic and probabilistic approaches is an obstacle to the development of the most appropriate method of assessment in a particular case. It is neither possible nor useful to establish an approach to seismic hazard assessment that will be the ideal tool for all situations. The approach in each study should be chosen according to the nature of the project and also be calibrated to the seismicity of the region under study, including the quantity and quality of the data available to characterise the seismicity. Seismic hazard assessment should continue to evolve, unfettered by almost ideological allegiance to particular approaches, with the understanding of earthquake processes.

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Sumatra

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